The Pakistan Update

By C. Raja Mohan

Whether he quits or not, President Asif Ali Zardari has been so severely weakened that he no longer poses a threat to Pakistan’s permanent establishment. In fact the Army Chief Ashfaq Kayani might prefer holding a de-fanged Zardari prisoner in Islamabad’s presidential palace and run the country with the pliable Yousuf Raza Gilani as the Prime Minister.

Barely two years ago a discredited Army leadership under Gen. Pervez Musharraf was forced to compromise with the civilian political leaders. Now the Army is back as the arbiter of the nation’s domestic politics amidst a civilian disarray.

Kayani may in fact be better placed than his predecessor Musharraf, who had all the disadvantages of being legally responsible for running the country. Kayani, in contrast, has all the effective power in without being accountable to any one.

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Tags: Asif Zardari, Chief Justice, General Kiyani, Iftikhar Chaudhry, Judiciary, Pakistan, Pakistan Army, Pervez Musharraf, President of Pakistan, Supreme Court

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By Tarek Fatah

On Thursday morning as Pakistan’s Defence Minister was preparing to board a flight to China for an official visit, he was detained by Pakistani security officials and was told he had been barred from leaving the country. An altercation ensued, but the country’s top civilian defence official was told by the police and soldiers that they take orders from senior generals and judges, not government ministers.

Minister Ahmad Mukhtar was told by the security officials that they were acting on instructions from the National Accountability Bureau, an arm of Pakistan’s intelligence service created by former military ruler Pervez Musharraf to harass political opponents with corruption charges. The Defence Minister was told his name was on an ‘Exit Control List’ even though he has never been convicted of a crime. Clearly, Pakistan has entered a decisive stage. Imagine the U.S. Defence Secretary being detained by U.S. marshals at JFK airport or the RCMP telling Peter MacKay, he cannot leave the country.

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Tags: Army, Husain Haqqani, Judiciary, Military Coup, NRO, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, PPP, Supreme Court, Terrorism, US, Zardari

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By Harlan Ullman

The best-known sound bites from the George W. Bush presidency ranged from “mission accomplished” to “you are either with us or against us.”

For the moment and given the financial crises, the equivalent slogan from President Barack Obama’s young administration is “too big to fail.” And his widely acclaimed acceptance address for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize — more a major academic lecture than a speech — suggested that this phrase should be relevant to Pakistan.

Is Pakistan too big to fail?

At West Point, Obama declared Afghanistan to be a vital American national interest. Many question that proposition. Moreover, if defanging al-Qaida is job one, why are 40,000 additional NATO and U.S. troops needed to hunt down possibly as few as 100 al-Qaida terrorists? Furthermore, why should the United States expend its treasure to underwrite an Afghan government that is corrupt, incompetent and no doubt suspect in how it won the past presidential election? And since Afghanistan is incapable of paying for the security forces it needs to defeat the Taliban insurgency, is the United States prepared to fork up some $10 billion a year for that purpose?

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Tags: Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Asif Zarfari, Democracy, Featured, George Bush, Judiciary, NATO, Obama, Pakistan, Pakistan Army, Pervez Musharraf, Taliban, US

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By Michael Krepon

On November 28, 2009 the Pakistani media reported that President Asif Ali Zardari “divested himself” of his “powers” as Chairman of the National Command Authority, transferring them to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani.  Pakistan’s history has been marked by triangular jockeying among Pakistan’s Presidents, Prime Ministers, and Army Chiefs, as well as Constitutional gyrations facilitating Army, Parliamentary, and Presidential rule.  Against this backdrop, does this change in the Chairmanship of the NCA have meaning?  Are changes in the NCA and public releases of information about them helpful or harmful to nuclear stabilization on the subcontinent?

General Pervez Musharraf is taking well-deserved lumps for his long tenure as Pakistan’s Army Chief, Chief Executive, and then President.  But one undeniably positive result of his tenure was a stable, institutional structure for Pakistan’s nuclear decision making.   (more…)

Tags: Asif Zardari, India, Nuclear Technology, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, South Asia, US

Posted in Blog | 1,129 Comments »